Why I still think it likely for BTC to go to 7500 in this rally
I was long thinking on why this recent rally has happened and searching for clues in the past of similar events.
Then I discovered something very interesting.
Every time BTC broke the previous linear trend in the logarithmic chart, it retested it, not long afterward.
It happened after the 2011 bearmarket, it happened in the 2014/15 bearmarket, and even if it took longer to unfold this time,
it seems to be happening now.
And as for: BTC must correct because the weekly stoch RSI is on overbought now for over 1 month, take a look at historical weekly
stoch RSI's.
If BTC does a rally, it can stay on overbought for up to 4 months, the record of the April 2013 bubble.
But it also stayed on overbought for 2 1/2 and 3 months on other occasions.
We are now at almost 2 months, so it can still stay there for 2 weeks, in the extreme case even 4 weeks. Overbought for 4 months is unlikely though imho.
So this means we could see 2-4 green weeklys.
A retest of the previous linear trend would lead us to the price point that I mentioned: 7500.
Afterwards we would see a stronger correction and retest of the long squareroot trendline, before the rally will pick up steam in 2020, and go to new ATHs in 2021.
Then I discovered something very interesting.
Every time BTC broke the previous linear trend in the logarithmic chart, it retested it, not long afterward.
It happened after the 2011 bearmarket, it happened in the 2014/15 bearmarket, and even if it took longer to unfold this time,
it seems to be happening now.
And as for: BTC must correct because the weekly stoch RSI is on overbought now for over 1 month, take a look at historical weekly
stoch RSI's.
If BTC does a rally, it can stay on overbought for up to 4 months, the record of the April 2013 bubble.
But it also stayed on overbought for 2 1/2 and 3 months on other occasions.
We are now at almost 2 months, so it can still stay there for 2 weeks, in the extreme case even 4 weeks. Overbought for 4 months is unlikely though imho.
So this means we could see 2-4 green weeklys.
A retest of the previous linear trend would lead us to the price point that I mentioned: 7500.
Afterwards we would see a stronger correction and retest of the long squareroot trendline, before the rally will pick up steam in 2020, and go to new ATHs in 2021.
The other being the very strong one at 6500 (mirror resistance and very strong volume profile resistance)
We might take a dip at 6500, before we continue onwards towards 7500 or even more.