Bitcoin has held 9k in the end. It struggled but it did. The following analysis is about what happens if we break below 9k. If we don't break below 9k and we break 10.3k, we are going above 12k. I still believe Bitcoin isn't in a Bubble. It is a unique asset that is here to change everything. 160B dollars isn't that much. Below I have posted a chart from the OKex futures. If the channel holds and it doesn't break, we are going up. If you are long have your stop loss below 9k. If we don't break 10k again fast, this could be sign we are going down.
November monthly's R3 is at 8000, which will be support when revisited. Some projections indicate the Monthly P will be somewhere around 8500.
Weekly Pivot S1-S2 lie between 7800 and 8200. S3 is at 7200. If it breaks then we are totally oversold and anything below 7200 is cheap coins.
My moving averages on the 4H chart show that 9000 was great support and when broken, next support is somewhere between 8k and 7k depending on which exchange you are looking at.
The Daily moving averages indicate that support is around 7000-7250
Fibonancci retracement from the 5500 to the 11500 move, also indicates that 50% and 61.8% levels around 7800 and 8500.
Bitcoin also doesn't like to move down more than 30-40%. So that's how it would look like if it fell more. Also Bitcoin likes to have 3-4 days of downside and then back up even harder. Something like a harmonic 3 drives pattern and a completion of a 9-13 4H TD or even the completion of a 1D of the 9TD with a 1-4 day pull back.
In terms of actual support and resistance, we have support clusters at the following levels 7000-7200 and 7800-8500. I believe 7800-8100 is the best place to buy and 8500 is great for a short term bounce.
Below I have some chart to see where supports really lies visually. I have other charts from which I derived these levels, but below you can see the core ones.
What is worrying me this time is that both the Monthly and Weekly indicate that this is the top. In November 2013 the weekly was a 9 and the daily was a 9 and 13R... which came right before the bear trend. However, keep in mind that this timing indicator seems to fail more often on higher timeframes. It does very well on the daily, but not on other timeframes. What is worrying me even more is that crazy doji that we had on the 29th and given the fact that 4 years ago, Bitcoin traded in a similar way... After it went 10x in a month... Something that we did in a year...
The situation is very different this time though. We went 10x from the ATH in 4 years, and 15x since Nov 2016. We also have a much better infrastructure, stable code, a lot of investment in mining, users, hodlers, merchants, communities (+memes), media coverage, hedge funds getting in, futures, options and many live examples of why we need Bitcoin (banks collapsing, capital controls, hyperinflation, war on cash etc). Also true hodlers, before August 1st, managed to get extra Bitcoins from the Hardforks, somewhere between 20-100% from their Bitcoin holdings due to the Bcash, Bgold and 2x (futures) hardforks which many added to their Bitcoin holdings!
November monthly's R3 is at 8000, which will be support when revisited. Some projections indicate the Monthly P will be somewhere around 8500.
Weekly Pivot S1-S2 lie between 7800 and 8200. S3 is at 7200. If it breaks then we are totally oversold and anything below 7200 is cheap coins.
My moving averages on the 4H chart show that 9000 was great support and when broken, next support is somewhere between 8k and 7k depending on which exchange you are looking at.
The Daily moving averages indicate that support is around 7000-7250
Fibonancci retracement from the 5500 to the 11500 move, also indicates that 50% and 61.8% levels around 7800 and 8500.
Bitcoin also doesn't like to move down more than 30-40%. So that's how it would look like if it fell more. Also Bitcoin likes to have 3-4 days of downside and then back up even harder. Something like a harmonic 3 drives pattern and a completion of a 9-13 4H TD or even the completion of a 1D of the 9TD with a 1-4 day pull back.
In terms of actual support and resistance, we have support clusters at the following levels 7000-7200 and 7800-8500. I believe 7800-8100 is the best place to buy and 8500 is great for a short term bounce.
Below I have some chart to see where supports really lies visually. I have other charts from which I derived these levels, but below you can see the core ones.
What is worrying me this time is that both the Monthly and Weekly indicate that this is the top. In November 2013 the weekly was a 9 and the daily was a 9 and 13R... which came right before the bear trend. However, keep in mind that this timing indicator seems to fail more often on higher timeframes. It does very well on the daily, but not on other timeframes. What is worrying me even more is that crazy doji that we had on the 29th and given the fact that 4 years ago, Bitcoin traded in a similar way... After it went 10x in a month... Something that we did in a year...
The situation is very different this time though. We went 10x from the ATH in 4 years, and 15x since Nov 2016. We also have a much better infrastructure, stable code, a lot of investment in mining, users, hodlers, merchants, communities (+memes), media coverage, hedge funds getting in, futures, options and many live examples of why we need Bitcoin (banks collapsing, capital controls, hyperinflation, war on cash etc). Also true hodlers, before August 1st, managed to get extra Bitcoins from the Hardforks, somewhere between 20-100% from their Bitcoin holdings due to the Bcash, Bgold and 2x (futures) hardforks which many added to their Bitcoin holdings!