ビットコイン／米ドルロング
Weekly Update: Bitcoin to ALMOST Triple?
Approximately a month ago on CNBC, the ticker displayed on the bottom of my TV screen would be fixated with a quote of Bitcoin. The bewilderment of the CNBC hosts with the fact that Bitcoin was actually moving up and displaying stable price action, in the midst of a banking crisis was, to them, counterintuitive. Inexplicable.
In my trading office I keep CNBC on as back ground noise. To be a trader, and incorporate most anything uttered on CNBC into a trading or analytical thesis to derive a profit, is akin to just donating your money to an unworthy cause. This post is not about how worthless, or destructive I find the content being CNBC produces for professional traders and investors at large...so relax.
Bitcoin’s most recent top occurred on April 14, 2023 at $31,050. On my daily live-videos Bitcoin is discussed every day. On April I5th I posted in my trading room:
” Weekend Update: Is EVERYTHING about to come down together?”
The aftermath of that post of Bitcoin at $31,050 was a projected path that would cause a 25% decline in the asset price. Soon after BTC started it’s decent, the CNBC guests couldn’t wait to declare the irresponsibility of any trader or investor propping those "things" up. Suffice to say, we're down almost 25% now. I bring this up not to say, “look at me, I’m smart, CNBC is stupid…bla, bla, bla)…I do that to get those of you reading this post… to pay attention to what I say next.
In writing, that’s called, “The Hook”.
Suffice to say, in that post I covered many assets, and today’s conclusion would be precisely what I forecasted on the 15th of April. Everything covered did come down together and to the targets pointed out for every asset mentioned, we’re hit, or very close and about to be hit. I bring that up because here’s another one of those posts that you can track, bookmark or keep handy to refer back to periodically if you choose to do so. In my analysis I am forecasting tier-1 crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL and ADA) to embark on an impulsive move higher. A move that that should start imminently. Now this is a proclamation that has caused me great consternation because at the same time, I am forecasting US Markets to do the exact same thing…but in the opposite direction. So how does one square risk assets, like crypto moving higher, while simultaneously, global stock markets are moving lower?
In truth. Only through the kind of analysis I practice, and speculation, because the event mentioned has NOT happened. There is no way to tell the future. Trading for a living is not easy. Forecasting price and then sharing that analysis with the public, opens one up to being called out for being wrong. In my case, I do get some ugly direct messages every now and then. Especially when I’m forecasting something that is clearly against someone’s current position. But the truth of the matter is most times I am right, and most times forecasting areas are hit. The manner in which the price action arrives at the target may not be 100% accurate but price does reconcile in my target boxes the vast majority of the time.
My forecast for Bitcoin specifically is for price to be in the area of all time highs by this time next year. In my analytical mind, I think it happens before then, but I have no mechanism, nor methodology to accurately forecast timeframe. So, I hope if you have interest in Bitcoin, you’ll track this particular post. Maybe you’ll be encouraged to make your first crypto investment keeping in mind your risk tolerances and proper portfolio allocations. Currently crypto makes up approximately 5% of my resources. I am a crypto investor, not trader. I trade to make a paycheck, a living. Where my crypto coverage basket is now, these are assets not worthy of trading…they’re worthy of owning.
Best to all,
Chris
In my trading office I keep CNBC on as back ground noise. To be a trader, and incorporate most anything uttered on CNBC into a trading or analytical thesis to derive a profit, is akin to just donating your money to an unworthy cause. This post is not about how worthless, or destructive I find the content being CNBC produces for professional traders and investors at large...so relax.
Bitcoin’s most recent top occurred on April 14, 2023 at $31,050. On my daily live-videos Bitcoin is discussed every day. On April I5th I posted in my trading room:
” Weekend Update: Is EVERYTHING about to come down together?”
The aftermath of that post of Bitcoin at $31,050 was a projected path that would cause a 25% decline in the asset price. Soon after BTC started it’s decent, the CNBC guests couldn’t wait to declare the irresponsibility of any trader or investor propping those "things" up. Suffice to say, we're down almost 25% now. I bring this up not to say, “look at me, I’m smart, CNBC is stupid…bla, bla, bla)…I do that to get those of you reading this post… to pay attention to what I say next.
In writing, that’s called, “The Hook”.
Suffice to say, in that post I covered many assets, and today’s conclusion would be precisely what I forecasted on the 15th of April. Everything covered did come down together and to the targets pointed out for every asset mentioned, we’re hit, or very close and about to be hit. I bring that up because here’s another one of those posts that you can track, bookmark or keep handy to refer back to periodically if you choose to do so. In my analysis I am forecasting tier-1 crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL and ADA) to embark on an impulsive move higher. A move that that should start imminently. Now this is a proclamation that has caused me great consternation because at the same time, I am forecasting US Markets to do the exact same thing…but in the opposite direction. So how does one square risk assets, like crypto moving higher, while simultaneously, global stock markets are moving lower?
In truth. Only through the kind of analysis I practice, and speculation, because the event mentioned has NOT happened. There is no way to tell the future. Trading for a living is not easy. Forecasting price and then sharing that analysis with the public, opens one up to being called out for being wrong. In my case, I do get some ugly direct messages every now and then. Especially when I’m forecasting something that is clearly against someone’s current position. But the truth of the matter is most times I am right, and most times forecasting areas are hit. The manner in which the price action arrives at the target may not be 100% accurate but price does reconcile in my target boxes the vast majority of the time.
My forecast for Bitcoin specifically is for price to be in the area of all time highs by this time next year. In my analytical mind, I think it happens before then, but I have no mechanism, nor methodology to accurately forecast timeframe. So, I hope if you have interest in Bitcoin, you’ll track this particular post. Maybe you’ll be encouraged to make your first crypto investment keeping in mind your risk tolerances and proper portfolio allocations. Currently crypto makes up approximately 5% of my resources. I am a crypto investor, not trader. I trade to make a paycheck, a living. Where my crypto coverage basket is now, these are assets not worthy of trading…they’re worthy of owning.
Best to all,
Chris
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