Looks like crypto market will give a chance for almost everyone who bought at higher level to break even or profit if this perspective materialize. As always this is not an attempt to tell the future, just some base for risk management. Market will always trick most people and go for unexpected paths, so this vision will need several adjusts on it's course.
After several charts on altcoins showing very big gains, a wave 2 was spotted on BTCUSD so this is time for wave 3, the big wave ! And I expect it go at least to standard 0.5 Fibonacci ~14.5K but setup a big bull trap above it by going 14.8-15K them we can either go for another market crash or just a wave 4 and finally wave 5 where it can go extended or another market crash !! The year completed just 2 months and a lot already happened with very wide swings and who knows there is a lot still to come like a possible 32K or a crash going to 4K.
After several charts on altcoins showing very big gains, a wave 2 was spotted on BTCUSD so this is time for wave 3, the big wave ! And I expect it go at least to standard 0.5 Fibonacci ~14.5K but setup a big bull trap above it by going 14.8-15K them we can either go for another market crash or just a wave 4 and finally wave 5 where it can go extended or another market crash !! The year completed just 2 months and a lot already happened with very wide swings and who knows there is a lot still to come like a possible 32K or a crash going to 4K.
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BTC is a bit late on our schedule, I think the wave 3 explosion will happen now:
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BTC broke our previous circle and is heading to our new circle, because there is a lot of harmonics I will setup the most conservative one by one in order to allow to update the moving trailing stop
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Our minor target of 11616 got reached if everything works perfectly to our circles the next minor target is the previous top 11788 in about 3 hours from now:
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Our previous timing didn't work, there is too much harmonics so picking up the strongest is very hard, this is another try:
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Bulls got tired and could not even go to last high. Looks like we are going to an inner wave 4 to gain more strength but it is going way weaker than anticipated which is bringing some bearish market to my mind:
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Here is situation with 3 paths, 2 Bulls 1 Bear. The pace BTC got is way weaker than I was expecting but that's how Market works, going unexpected ways. If you have a good risk management you will always be wealth even with the unexpected and that's how you can profit on the long term. Path 1: Heavy bullish one, Market stay as is for the next 21 hours, and it is looking low probability right now; Path 2: Almost Neutral with a Bullish bias, Market go to a 50% retracement; Path 3: Bear Market, we go to 0.786 Fibonacci Level:
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Looks like wave 4 is complete and BTC is approaching the bullish curve to break out, so this is the time for a explosive, an inner 5th wave inside a wave 3. And it is looking like alts may go ahead this time, so the alts festival is about to start. The next target is around 12.8K, that's a target I am chasing for almost a month. The timing so far is trick, I am failing recently to reach perfect time which is normal as this is the most difficult and important thing on a market, so I must be accurate with time not so frequently but will keep trying as it eases a lot your life.
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Market still controlled by Bears with new lows and no new highs at the same time bears are not able to break down the 0.5 Fib support at 10.4K so market is triangulating squeezed by 0.5 Fib support and the MA50 while our curve is reaching a point where huge movements can go both sides:
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BTC is breaking out:
トレード終了: ストップロスに到達
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Got out by breaking down the 0.5 Fib. Market setup a trap just after crossing above the curve and the massive dump. As I said huge movements can go both sides, but unfortunately no my side.
