BTC May Reach 25,700-26,359 in Several Days

BTCUSD May Push Higher to 25,780 to 26,350 Near Term Before Consolidating or Resuming the Downtrend

1. BTCUSD may reach 25,700 to 26,350 before reversing to resume the downtrend, or consolidating the gains as part of a reversal process. Whether or not BTCUSD has reversed long-term is unclear, but the long-term downtrend is unlikely to have ended. Counter-trend corrections can last weeks to months and retrace substantial portions of the prior trend. For example, the NDX in the 2000-2002 bear market had rallies of 62%, 59%, 32% and 52%, which were the four largest bear rallies. This post is not arguing that BTC may have a bear rally of that magnitude but only that bear rallies in risk assets can be quite significant and sharp.

2. $25,780 / BTC = the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the up trendline (the zero line) which is blue. It runs parallel to the zero line. That line shows a possibility of this powerful rally reaching about 25,700.

3. $26,359 / BTC = the .618 retracement of the last major wave of decline that ended on June 18's low at 17,592. This tends to be a significant level for retracements to reverse even if temporarily. See chart below to view this level more precisely (see the circle at the yellow .618 line):

4. RSI continues to carve out strong OB signals on the 4-hour chart. The pullbacks remain near 43-50, which is a sign of bullish strength / momentum in the near term.

5. BTC has been correlating to some degree with equities this year, especially recently. Equity indices in the US have pushed past prior highs from this lengthy consolidation since mid-June 2022. The breakout in equity indices appears as though it could last at least a few more days.

6. BTC has been squeezing in a parallel channel for about a month. The length of the squeeze suggests a powerful breakout in volatility and also price as a result, regardless of direction, which has been occurring the past several days.

7. BTC stalled at symmetry resistance on July 18, where the current wave up had equality with prior waves in the corrective channel. Then another key Fibonacci level was hit today, the 1.272 level (24,229) using the same projections with a different Fibonacci ratio. These levels were identified a few days ago on July 18 in a prior post by this author (see below and hit the "forward" button to include current prices). The prior post indicates a possibility of another Fibonacci 1.618 level being reached

8. The 1.618 Fibonacci level based on the prior waves in the channel is also visible on my prior post from July 18. This lies at 25,062, and coincides to some extent with the 25,780-26,359 levels identified in paragraphs 2 and 3.

This post is not a trade idea or a trade recommendation but rather an analysis of current PA using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci and trend analysis.

DISCLAIMER: This idea is solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would never want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances.


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コメント:

The uptrend line that has held across lows since July 12 remains intact. However, US indices appear to be reversing at major resistance levels, and given the correlation between crypto markets and US indices in the past few months, the targets mentioned may be less likely to be achieved in the near term.

コメント:

This post recognized that the downtrend that has been in place since late last year is unlikely to have reversed. The 25K - 26K levels cited in this post were given as potential further upside targets for the very sharp rally that occurred off mid-June lows.

This week, BTC has substantially undercut its short-term uptrend line and given back up the breakout level as well at 22,401. At this time, the breakout appears to be a false one. It appears much less likely that the Fibonacci levels of interest near 25,700 - 26,359 will be reached in the near term.