Today I revisited BTCUSD on the daily timeframe and saw new interesting points which looking directly on 4H are hard to spot. Because the daily timeframe is not so good looking like 4H I reviewed the analysis and at the end change it to 4H for a better view, so it is basically a multi timeframe analysis of D and 4H merged with a new low point of 5,8K.
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Our D green point was just ignored and BTC just hit Our long awaited 6,6K. BTC is just ignoring any rebound for a long while, a lot of my D points never happens. It can just go again slowly into 5,8K without any rebound. The best is to use always a trailing stop so you don't need to fight the market, if it continues down you are fine, if it bounces the market realizes your profit. Anyway I will chart a new possible bounce so you can have always a plan A and B:
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BTC got into panicking/waterfall/falling knife mode and any experienced veteran know how it is dangerous. You never know where it is going to stop, if you are already shorting, just let the trailing stop act for you. If you realized profits and is looking for a hot support for bull run and start thinking about to buy the panic, do so if you are looking for the big picture into one or two years, or at least have a very very short stop loss in order to not loose much.
It is time to think about the big picture so I have zoom out the chart and look for the worst in order to better look for the optimal. Although I have set support on the 0.786 Fibo (5,8K) for the daily timeframe, there is still the weekly timeframe to consider and the very old stable channel. And I see it now reasonable to think on the weekly timeframe a hit on the top of the old channel, it may look unbelievable but now it is looking 'safe' to show this perspective :
It is time to think about the big picture so I have zoom out the chart and look for the worst in order to better look for the optimal. Although I have set support on the 0.786 Fibo (5,8K) for the daily timeframe, there is still the weekly timeframe to consider and the very old stable channel. And I see it now reasonable to think on the weekly timeframe a hit on the top of the old channel, it may look unbelievable but now it is looking 'safe' to show this perspective :
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BTC is showing some bounce finally on what was looking carnage, it just stoped on our inner 0.786 Fibo approx. 6.2K and on last charge I didn't provide any retrace for the rebound, it can bounce back to the inner 0.236 Fibo to test it from downside, also could just resume downfall without any hope for bulls:
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After completing the E point the main question is if the market will engage a Bull run or go for an extended E point. Like a Chess game, on one side is the Bulls, on the other the Bears, and a complete perspective of the game must have a view on both territories. So I decided to review the market with a Bullish view but Charting both a Bull and a Bear on the same Chart will make it a mess. Interesting enough and only after hitting 6K I found an intriguing and almost freak Fibonacci levels covering a lot of key points marked with a red cross X. Although I found this a bit too late, the same Fibo could be traced very early with some orthodoxy not on the book technique I plan to explore on crypto market for finding lows. Bulls and Bears run at different paces so if the market turned out to Bull it will show on his pace and I just plotted some possible paths for bulls and bears:
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BTC is about to face the 4H MA50, the inner Fibo 0.236 (8,5K) and them the outer Fibo 0.236 (9,4K) that's a good concentration of resistence but there is nothing impossible on market, volumes are quite high and if the game flips above 9,4K we can go as high as 17K !!
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BTC got a new hit into 8,5K now challenging some sell wall there, this time it is featuring the 4H MA50 resistence together, it is still unclear the big picture, this zone is a key war zone between bears and bulls. A minor 5 wave formation lead to believe 9,4K is still possible while a crossing into the MA50 in the first try doesn't look probable. So you basically can flip a coin take one side, make the risk return ratio good enough and try to scalp or take your side for a long position and wait either the stop loss or a very profitable trade:
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Market got a bit sideways, maybe because of binance in maintenance or it is just market time, the 5 waves still holding, any break down would mean a heavy bearish movement:
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So far all going as expected BTC heading to 9.4K (bitfinex) where is sitting the major game flipping point. So far it is going on BULL pace but everything can change on that resistence and is not wise to predict it is going up till 17K without crossing this barrier. But, as always you can choose a side and use risk management to take you out of the game when things don't run your way. If it going up, it will just double value from here, it is 8,5K to 17K and on bear side it can at least half from here 8.5k to 4.1K and 3K with weekly still on the bear side of things. And because there is still some room until 9.4K it is a good time to position on bull side early on with the option to revert everything in case market decides bearish. Some alts are already picking up and may exploit it on another ideas:
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The bear winter could have started with BTCUSD too weak so far to hit the 9.4K and some good correction and/or downtrend is necessary, we could have just finished the first wave of 5 or we can go very straight to the 4.1K level. I will wait 14H for confirmation and if some panic take over or no new high comes then shorting we go:
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BTC is just sitting on the all import 0.236 Fibo (8360) loosing this we are going down to the 0.5 Fibo (7560) where all bull hopes will sit. And not loosing that 0.236 Fibo means continuation of the bulltrend to 9.4K:
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Although loosing the 0.236 Fibo, lack of volumes during weekend made BTC with not new highs or lows, going triangulation, in this case so far a bullish one, heading to 9.4K. It complete another ABC correction without break down the last low which means a continuation pattern and maybe another wider wave 5 formation with this last lag being the the new wave 3 heading to the all expected 9.4K:
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Just found this interesting "eye of the hurricane" Fibo circles with lots of interesting points and it just show how BTC has triangulated to the middle of it's eye:
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After a minor adjusted circle Fib, zoom in, looking into previous highs, and a look into market depth I can see a new support near 9.2K, so the previous 9.4K (0.236 Fib) is almost overlapping with the previous major low 9.2K so for a complete bull market both must be surpassed:
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Zoom in:
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So far very tricky, very sideways, must go up but, still early to say, looking more bearish:
