BTC/USD - SHORT SZENARIOS - ANALYSE – D
The "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a further - final sell-off if necessary.
-> The coupling of the traditional markets to the BTC is very high because of the institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls).
-> In which key areas we can expect a local bottom, I will analyze in more detail in today's post.
-> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly chart.
table of contents
- 1st part = EXPLANATION - indicators used + levels.
- 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown
- 3rd part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT.
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -.
-> 0.786 FIB = 17,738.75 USD | Completed
-> 0.88 FIB = 11,608.27 USD | Pending processing
> As "BLUE + dotted" lines - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - Dec/2018 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -.
-> 0.786 FIB = 17,246.82 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 11,057.51 USD | Pending processing
> As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart.
3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement,
which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - Aug/2022 -.
-> 1.618 FIB = 12,931.80 USD | Pending processing
> As "orange" lines - drawn in the chart.
4. DEMAND ZONES |
The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement,
thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020.
-> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 11,720.01 USD | Pending processing
-> WEEK ZONE | 2 | = 8,833.00 – 9,345.00 USD | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 10,681.87 USD | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 9,047.25 – 9,221.52 USD | Pending processing
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
5. | POINT OF INTEREST |
The points of psychological interest,
were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI | 1 | = 16.000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 2 | = 14.000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 3 | = 12.000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 4 | = 10.000 USD | Pending processing
| POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support.
> As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart.
SECOND PART.
As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level.
1st | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at around 16,000-17,250 USD (Unlikely).
What speaks in favor of:
- "BREAK OF THE SIDEWAYS TREND CHANNEL"
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.786 + 0.786 FIB"
- "LIQUIDITY HUNT
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY rises + S&P500 falls
What is the argument against:
- "POINT OF INTEREST (1-4)
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB"
- "USD (DXY)" = further depreciation
- "S&P500" = recovery and no market crash
2. | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at approx. 11,000-13,000 USD (Very likely)
What speaks for this:
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB"
- "POINT OF INTEREST (2-3)
- "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + W1 (1)"
- downtrend lines serve as support
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY rises + S&P500 falls
What is the argument against:
- "POINT OF INTEREST = Existing liquidity cascade (4).
- "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) + W1 (2)"
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
CONCLUSION.
At the moment, it is impossible to say what the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will be.
The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows:
- DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500.
- The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash!
- Should this market crash occur, then this will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.)
= The marked levels should have large order blocks ready, which will consume this sharp sell-off within a short period of time.
-> As soon as the BOTTOM formation crystallizes, I will upload a detailed LONG execution.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it.
Thank you and a successful trading!
The following image should show you where the support line comes from:
-> The coupling of the traditional markets to the BTC is very high because of the institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls).
-> In which key areas we can expect a local bottom, I will analyze in more detail in today's post.
-> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly chart.
table of contents
- 1st part = EXPLANATION - indicators used + levels.
- 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown
- 3rd part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT.
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -.
-> 0.786 FIB = 17,738.75 USD | Completed
-> 0.88 FIB = 11,608.27 USD | Pending processing
> As "BLUE + dotted" lines - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - Dec/2018 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -.
-> 0.786 FIB = 17,246.82 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 11,057.51 USD | Pending processing
> As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart.
3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement,
which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - Aug/2022 -.
-> 1.618 FIB = 12,931.80 USD | Pending processing
> As "orange" lines - drawn in the chart.
4. DEMAND ZONES |
The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement,
thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020.
-> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 11,720.01 USD | Pending processing
-> WEEK ZONE | 2 | = 8,833.00 – 9,345.00 USD | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 10,681.87 USD | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 9,047.25 – 9,221.52 USD | Pending processing
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
5. | POINT OF INTEREST |
The points of psychological interest,
were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI | 1 | = 16.000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 2 | = 14.000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 3 | = 12.000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 4 | = 10.000 USD | Pending processing
| POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support.
> As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart.
SECOND PART.
As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level.
1st | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at around 16,000-17,250 USD (Unlikely).
What speaks in favor of:
- "BREAK OF THE SIDEWAYS TREND CHANNEL"
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.786 + 0.786 FIB"
- "LIQUIDITY HUNT
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY rises + S&P500 falls
What is the argument against:
- "POINT OF INTEREST (1-4)
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB"
- "USD (DXY)" = further depreciation
- "S&P500" = recovery and no market crash
2. | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at approx. 11,000-13,000 USD (Very likely)
What speaks for this:
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB"
- "POINT OF INTEREST (2-3)
- "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + W1 (1)"
- downtrend lines serve as support
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY rises + S&P500 falls
What is the argument against:
- "POINT OF INTEREST = Existing liquidity cascade (4).
- "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) + W1 (2)"
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
CONCLUSION.
At the moment, it is impossible to say what the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will be.
The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows:
- DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500.
- The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash!
- Should this market crash occur, then this will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.)
= The marked levels should have large order blocks ready, which will consume this sharp sell-off within a short period of time.
-> As soon as the BOTTOM formation crystallizes, I will upload a detailed LONG execution.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it.
Thank you and a successful trading!
The following image should show you where the support line comes from:
コメント:
0.786 FIB touched and closed (daily) above the important 18.400 Level.
コメント:
The likelihood that we will experience really blatant selling pressure with our existing BlackSwan event over the next few days suggests that we could very likely reach the zone between $10,000 - $12,000.
What could prevent this from happening, if necessary, is the following:
- Major announcement from some major institution buying up FTX and thus alleviating the cause of fear a bit.
- Additionally, an extreme short squeeze which chases BTC directly towards 24,000 - 26,000 USD.
However, as small market participants, we can only wait and see, drink tea and not FOMOn. Any kind of entry in the current market conditions with leverage will most likely end in a loss.
The only thing that works now is to buy SPOT piece by piece at key levels with a long term horizon and transfer directly to your cold wallet.
Good luck in these stormy times, whoever survives this time now - will come out a big winner in a few years.
What could prevent this from happening, if necessary, is the following:
- Major announcement from some major institution buying up FTX and thus alleviating the cause of fear a bit.
- Additionally, an extreme short squeeze which chases BTC directly towards 24,000 - 26,000 USD.
However, as small market participants, we can only wait and see, drink tea and not FOMOn. Any kind of entry in the current market conditions with leverage will most likely end in a loss.
The only thing that works now is to buy SPOT piece by piece at key levels with a long term horizon and transfer directly to your cold wallet.
Good luck in these stormy times, whoever survives this time now - will come out a big winner in a few years.
コメント:
The 0.786 FIB was successfully worked off and now opens up a possible sell-off to the marked levels.
All relevant levels for this are drawn in.
CAUTION: Don't get confused in the smaller time units, always keep the big picture in mind with such volatility.
All relevant levels for this are drawn in.
CAUTION: Don't get confused in the smaller time units, always keep the big picture in mind with such volatility.
コメント:
POI(1) has been successfully worked through, and we have advanced to the SUPPLY ZONE (2).
> Now everything looks like the "short term" rally is over - the DXY is recovering.
> The Fibonacci levels of the idea have been perfectly worked off (green hooks).
> The retracement and demand levels drawn in have been adjusted to the new LOW POINT.
> A sell-off up to 18,500.00 USD is definitely not excluded!
The updated levels are in the following chart:
> Now everything looks like the "short term" rally is over - the DXY is recovering.
> The Fibonacci levels of the idea have been perfectly worked off (green hooks).
> The retracement and demand levels drawn in have been adjusted to the new LOW POINT.
> A sell-off up to 18,500.00 USD is definitely not excluded!
The updated levels are in the following chart:
トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達
