RLinda ! BTCUSD-> What's next, rally or crash?

2022年10月19日

Bitcoin is returning to support its current range. Having found itself in a prolonged consolidation, fixed at the top and bottom by strong limit zones for several months, the Flagship Cryptocurrency may not be able to go higher anytime soon.


Influenced by fundamentals based on macroeconomic news and uncertainty, the sideways price range has reduced Bitcoin's volatility to a minimum, which in turn is considered a highly volatile instrument, and the rare periods of prolonged consolidation are mostly followed by significant price movements with volume spikes and increased volatility.


Bitcoin as well as altcoins, with the exception of some coins, traded lower Tuesday night as the global cryptocurrency market capitalization declined 1.1%


Additional data from research firm Santiment:

• Bitcoin kits may be accumulating BTC at their current levels, in a phase of consolidation formation with reduced volatility.
  
• The price is approaching a strong level from December 17, 2017. It can be assumed that the mentioned zone was the key for long-term investors, giving the best opportunity to increase their assets.
  
• Also, Santiment points to the fact that the number of bitcoin addresses holding from 10k BTC to 100k BTC has reached its maximum since the beginning of 2021
  

Bitcoin was testing the $20,000 zone, but most investors remained skeptical that a rally was possible anytime soon.
The price is in a consolidation phase, and that will continue until:
Investors aren't convinced of the Fed's risks, tightening or loosening policy;
Crypto exchanges will begin to capture the huge USDC flows available.

The last three times the Fed has raised its key rate by 0.75%. The next meeting of the regulator will be held on November 02, 2022, and the same 0.75% hike is very likely predicted. However, the growing risk of a recession caused by the tightening of monetary policy may cool the ardor of the regulator. Even a small pullback and a 0.5% rate hike could cause premature optimism in the markets, as investors will try to catch the Fed's reversal moment over the next year.


The bitcoin price has remained in a narrow trading range of $20500 to $18550 for the past 30 days, and a breakout of that range will determine the future of Flagship.
Here are some of the notable developments in the crypto news section:

• As reported by the Bitcoin Mining Council (BMC):
  Bitcoin's energy consumption is up 41% from a year earlier, despite significant advances in energy efficiency and a more diverse and sustainable energy mix.
  
• The negative environmental impacts of the industry may soon be reduced, something many countries and leading experts are seeking, such as the European Union, which earlier this year parried a proposal to ban cryptocurrency mining

Bitcoin has formed a descending triangle, the essence of which is the pushing of the price by active sellers to the $18500 limit order zone by buyers. Based on the essence of this pattern, we can say that there is a probability of the last crash in the descending market, which can happen at a breakdown of the important support - the base of the pattern.
But it is still worth noting the indecision of investors and big traders, whose reaction could be two-way, depending on press releases and fundamental bases.


The BTC/USD pair is currently trading:

• Significantly below the 200-day moving average
  
• Slightly below the 50-day moving average, indicating a continuation of the downtrend
  
• Daily RSI and daily MACD are staying in the sell zone
  
• Hourly MACD is losing momentum in a bearish zone
  
• Hourly RSI is below the 50 level

From a technical analysis perspective, the price on the global chart (Daily Chart) is under bear market pressure. The formed price channel continues to be relevant, at the same time, a global "descending triangle" set-up is forming, which implies a breakdown of the support zone with a subsequent decline, but what is the target the Flagship Cryptocurrency is aiming for? 17622 (2022 global high) or 13970 (2019 global low)?


On the local chart (4 hour chart)
The price shows no active action on the part of the buyers. In response to the positive fundamental news the price reacts with fall, most likely, it says that the bottom has not been reached yet and the market is still getting rid of unnecessary investors and traders.

We should also pay attention to the price reaction to the descending resistance, and we see that active dynamic traders continue to reduce the price and push to the local support level 18500.

*News sources used included data from research firm Santiment; Federal Reserve meeting data; Bitcoin Mining Council

Sincerely R. Linda!

2022年10月19日

ノート

Assumed potential for price movement in the bearish direction. Important price cutoffs at the moment:
1) global low of 17600
2) important support 17000
3) 16500 level
4) 16000 level