As we approach Friday, it's clear that the impact of the US non-farm payroll data for February is significant.
Powell's emphasis on accelerating interest rate hikes during his monetary policy testimony to the Senate on Tuesday resulted in a sharp decline in the price of gold. Powell reiterated his stance on Wednesday, stating that he would focus on economic data and use it as a reference for making decisions on monetary policy.
Clearly, the upcoming release of the US non-farm payroll data for February is an important factor for decision-making. The current swing position of gold at 1835 points is likely to move in one direction after the data is released.
Regarding the outlook for gold, personally, I believe it will decline as the current price is near 1835. Looking at the chart, the current downtrend from 1858 to 1810 places 1835 exactly at the 50% retracement level. After the sharp decline, there will be a proportional rebound, followed by a new low, as predicted earlier. This trend is currently in line with my previous forecast.
Therefore, I judge that as long as the US dollar does not fall below 105, it will be challenging for gold to rise above 1835. It's highly probable that 1835 will be the high point of this rebound, and gold will fall back from this point.
Therefore, operationally, it is necessary to maintain a bearish trend. Short positions may be taken at the existing range of 1835-1830, with a stop loss at 1840. If the data is positive for gold and it breaks and stabilizes above 1840, there will be no need to take a bearish position.
Operational strategy: for the aggressive, short at 1835-1830, with a stop loss at 1840. For the conservative, wait for the data to be released before considering a position.
GC1!
GOLD1!
XAUUSD1!
Powell's emphasis on accelerating interest rate hikes during his monetary policy testimony to the Senate on Tuesday resulted in a sharp decline in the price of gold. Powell reiterated his stance on Wednesday, stating that he would focus on economic data and use it as a reference for making decisions on monetary policy.
Clearly, the upcoming release of the US non-farm payroll data for February is an important factor for decision-making. The current swing position of gold at 1835 points is likely to move in one direction after the data is released.
Therefore, I judge that as long as the US dollar does not fall below 105, it will be challenging for gold to rise above 1835. It's highly probable that 1835 will be the high point of this rebound, and gold will fall back from this point.
Therefore, operationally, it is necessary to maintain a bearish trend. Short positions may be taken at the existing range of 1835-1830, with a stop loss at 1840. If the data is positive for gold and it breaks and stabilizes above 1840, there will be no need to take a bearish position.
Operational strategy: for the aggressive, short at 1835-1830, with a stop loss at 1840. For the conservative, wait for the data to be released before considering a position.
GC1!
GOLD1!
XAUUSD1!
コメント:
The non-agricultural data is slightly negative, but the unemployment rate data in February is significantly bullish. The unemployment rate data is stronger than the non-agricultural data, which is generally bullish for gold. stay on the sidelines
コメント:
The data today was unexpected, and I believe that many people were caught off guard. While the negative impact of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) data was in line with expectations, what surprised everyone was that the February unemployment rate was contrary to the NFP data and showed stronger overall performance. This resulted in the NFP data meeting expectations of being negative, while gold rallied due to the stronger unemployment rate data.
