INTRODUCTION - This is the 02/08/24, 18-min bar, ultra-detailed >> incomplete signal << in this CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST (changes as often as I can update) for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. This one IS SO HARD, you don't even know.
DETAILS - So I finished #4B and went back to post #3 to post most recent notes bc #3 was relevant in that it caught the move this week. So during reconciliation for all trend maps. A specific map DISAGREED STRONGLY with 2 routes that all other maps agreed with. This the route that was offered instead. My instincts say this is the better choice for Thursday and Friday. In chart above, the dark blue is the new route. The gray and light blue routes are preceded by question marks because I can't tell how they are supposed to connect.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU
DETAILS - So I finished #4B and went back to post #3 to post most recent notes bc #3 was relevant in that it caught the move this week. So during reconciliation for all trend maps. A specific map DISAGREED STRONGLY with 2 routes that all other maps agreed with. This the route that was offered instead. My instincts say this is the better choice for Thursday and Friday. In chart above, the dark blue is the new route. The gray and light blue routes are preceded by question marks because I can't tell how they are supposed to connect.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU
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COMPARISON:
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8:52 M ET Price have been sticking to this:
a) have been sticking to it beat for beat
b) but that's a problem
c) bc when I drafted that chart trend maps agreed with the ending
d) this scenario unlikely to happen
e) beause the 8 day wave do not turn in time here:
b) but that's a problem
c) bc when I drafted that chart trend maps agreed with the ending
d) this scenario unlikely to happen
e) beause the 8 day wave do not turn in time here:
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f) that was the "M" top scenario from last night
g) but this is a problem now because bears are at 2020
h) their odds stopping the uniform break out increase for every point they get under 2026
i) at 2017 you are coin flipping for Friday out come
j) at 2016 or less bears are favored to change intermediate otucomes
k) it doesn't mean collapse... yet
l) it means bears can make price zig zag sidewas to down-up-down for the forseeaable future
g) but this is a problem now because bears are at 2020
h) their odds stopping the uniform break out increase for every point they get under 2026
i) at 2017 you are coin flipping for Friday out come
j) at 2016 or less bears are favored to change intermediate otucomes
k) it doesn't mean collapse... yet
l) it means bears can make price zig zag sidewas to down-up-down for the forseeaable future
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m) so here is 8-day wave again:
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n) see how that drop is a bit too deep for the turn
m) it creates a second scenario (that while not favored by the whole picture, does't really matter)
n) bc you "change trend" somewhere...
o) the "moment of truth" now is:
m) it creates a second scenario (that while not favored by the whole picture, does't really matter)
n) bc you "change trend" somewhere...
o) the "moment of truth" now is:
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p) for chart above: that's how you make a "daily binary"
q) that's why short term" daily binary" forecasting is effective
r) but it has to be "updated" 3 times a day to be "current " w/ all trends all the time
s) prices don't care what you want bull or bear, it will do its own thing
t) so now at 2025.88 as I type bulls are still favored to make the "UNIFORM" turn
u) I talked about in last notes for post #3 link below
v) but everything 'SHORTER THAN 8 DAYS" is beginning to get "out of position"
w) so you get into a scenario where price must HIT PERFECT PERFECT for a move to occur
x) but because of that "uniform turning" have a specific time to happen by
y) bulls are a "conditional" favorite, meaning favorite BUT THEY HAVE TO BE ON TIME
q) that's why short term" daily binary" forecasting is effective
r) but it has to be "updated" 3 times a day to be "current " w/ all trends all the time
s) prices don't care what you want bull or bear, it will do its own thing
t) so now at 2025.88 as I type bulls are still favored to make the "UNIFORM" turn
u) I talked about in last notes for post #3 link below
v) but everything 'SHORTER THAN 8 DAYS" is beginning to get "out of position"
w) so you get into a scenario where price must HIT PERFECT PERFECT for a move to occur
x) but because of that "uniform turning" have a specific time to happen by
y) bulls are a "conditional" favorite, meaning favorite BUT THEY HAVE TO BE ON TIME
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z) so NY just opened and good reaction, BUT IT BETTER STICK OR IT'S OVER:
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1) for chart above:
2) this is "why" stick saves work
3) or "candles" with long tail wick
4) this is also why my work, why I have managed to breakdown in detail how price works
5) does not improve on "classical analysis" any
6) bc classical TA's strategy for execution is EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO DO
7) that's a wrap until Friday close
2) this is "why" stick saves work
3) or "candles" with long tail wick
4) this is also why my work, why I have managed to breakdown in detail how price works
5) does not improve on "classical analysis" any
6) bc classical TA's strategy for execution is EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO DO
7) that's a wrap until Friday close
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THIS POST HAS ENDED -- HERE'S LAST ROUTE FOR 2135 :
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