Currently, I see a potential Bearish "Megaphone" pattern or potential Bearish Broadening wedge. Short-term bearish assumptions for the gold price are the potential targets 1, 2, and 3; that's the strongest support.
Technical analysis
Plan A:
If the price can break out and close below the potential target 3, I reckon XAU/USD will keep falling to retest the bottom wedge line.
Plan B:
If the price rejects the potential targets 1, 2, or 3, I reckon XAU will go up to retest the upper broadening wedge line and most likely the upper major channel line.
Invalidation:
If the price can break out and close above the broadening wedge, then this analysis fails.
Fundamental preview
Q2 started with a nice rally as Fed's dovish messages sink in. The market seems didn't care about strong US data and the US economic recovery, which statistically growing at its fastest pace since 1984.
Last week, the core retails sales went up to 8.4%, retail sales went up to 9.8%, and the unemployment claims fell deep to 576K. But, U.S consumer prices surge in March, CPI finds, pushing inflation to a 2 1/2-year high. As of now, I trust the price action.
London (CNN Business): "President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package will boost the US economy and drive faster global growth this year, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, though it warned that many countries continue to suffer from the pandemic and are at risk of being left behind.
The US economy will surpass its pre-pandemic size as growth reaches 6.4% this year, the IMF said, up 1.3 percentage points from the group's forecast in January. The rebound will help the global economy expand 6% in 2021, an upgrade of 0.5 percentage points from the IMF's previous outlook. The estimates are broadly in line with Wall Street's expectations."
Technical analysis
Plan A:
If the price can break out and close below the potential target 3, I reckon XAU/USD will keep falling to retest the bottom wedge line.
Plan B:
If the price rejects the potential targets 1, 2, or 3, I reckon XAU will go up to retest the upper broadening wedge line and most likely the upper major channel line.
Invalidation:
If the price can break out and close above the broadening wedge, then this analysis fails.
Fundamental preview
Q2 started with a nice rally as Fed's dovish messages sink in. The market seems didn't care about strong US data and the US economic recovery, which statistically growing at its fastest pace since 1984.
Last week, the core retails sales went up to 8.4%, retail sales went up to 9.8%, and the unemployment claims fell deep to 576K. But, U.S consumer prices surge in March, CPI finds, pushing inflation to a 2 1/2-year high. As of now, I trust the price action.
London (CNN Business): "President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package will boost the US economy and drive faster global growth this year, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, though it warned that many countries continue to suffer from the pandemic and are at risk of being left behind.
The US economy will surpass its pre-pandemic size as growth reaches 6.4% this year, the IMF said, up 1.3 percentage points from the group's forecast in January. The rebound will help the global economy expand 6% in 2021, an upgrade of 0.5 percentage points from the IMF's previous outlook. The estimates are broadly in line with Wall Street's expectations."
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The forecast remain the same if the price fall to below the upper broadening wedge line
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Rising wedge
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