#3-5B - THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD
WARNING - This is a follow up of previous work. As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this is meant to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As always, when price moves against forecasts and the next one is not posted, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.
HEADER - This is the 15-min bar 5-day generic forecast for overall direction and shape of spot gold price. I stated in notes of #3-5 today that price action indicated blue route needed to be expanded to include an "irregular quad top" pattern (the quintuple top is can actually be a considered a VERY IRREGULAR quad top). The difference between this expanded blue bull route is that it has defined limits, as opposed to undefined limits for #3-5. That is simply saying if bulls push for a third top, they will also do a fourth and maybe a fifth time. All of them (contained in illustrated channel) SHOULD fail by Friday, November 17.
SUMMARY - Oranges and light blue is from #3-5. Darker blue is current bull route. Gray is mirror extrapolation of light orange. Our experience with mirrors demand that we mark it there. The "X" makes the two trend lines that will decide the fate of tomorrow's NFP at 8:30 AM ET. At this stage of price action, above the "x" blue route is favored and vice versa.
FRAME OF REFERENCE - Links for 5 of most recent posts are below here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference and most importantly, as the ground of our conviction.
HEADER - This is the 15-min bar 5-day generic forecast for overall direction and shape of spot gold price. I stated in notes of #3-5 today that price action indicated blue route needed to be expanded to include an "irregular quad top" pattern (the quintuple top is can actually be a considered a VERY IRREGULAR quad top). The difference between this expanded blue bull route is that it has defined limits, as opposed to undefined limits for #3-5. That is simply saying if bulls push for a third top, they will also do a fourth and maybe a fifth time. All of them (contained in illustrated channel) SHOULD fail by Friday, November 17.
SUMMARY - Oranges and light blue is from #3-5. Darker blue is current bull route. Gray is mirror extrapolation of light orange. Our experience with mirrors demand that we mark it there. The "X" makes the two trend lines that will decide the fate of tomorrow's NFP at 8:30 AM ET. At this stage of price action, above the "x" blue route is favored and vice versa.
FRAME OF REFERENCE - Links for 5 of most recent posts are below here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference and most importantly, as the ground of our conviction.
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135-DAY OUTLOOK - So #3-5B (this post) fills in all the blanks that are left through March 8th, 2024:
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a) for chart above:
b) if the quad top play
c) it eliminates all the bear routes through March and also eliminates everything above 2370
d) and anything over 2270 is a a stretch too
b) if the quad top play
c) it eliminates all the bear routes through March and also eliminates everything above 2370
d) and anything over 2270 is a a stretch too
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e) that leaves this route with minor variations along the way
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f) 2:32 AM ET, 1987.36
g) 2 min bars saying orange is evaporating and barring "stick-save check down" during NFP
h) the quad top is dominating short term extrapolations
i) this means 2030 or higher in next 8 trading days
j) after quad top check down should finish BEFORE FED MINUTES on 11/22
k) which sets up move from 1940 to 2080
l) which sets up a 1960 bottom right at 01/10 for a move to 2220-2260 by 03/08
m) I keep bringing up this time frame from 01/10-03/08 bc it's a strong point of my forecasting
n) the setup to that date is CHECKING ALL THE BOXES, just a couple more to go
g) 2 min bars saying orange is evaporating and barring "stick-save check down" during NFP
h) the quad top is dominating short term extrapolations
i) this means 2030 or higher in next 8 trading days
j) after quad top check down should finish BEFORE FED MINUTES on 11/22
k) which sets up move from 1940 to 2080
l) which sets up a 1960 bottom right at 01/10 for a move to 2220-2260 by 03/08
m) I keep bringing up this time frame from 01/10-03/08 bc it's a strong point of my forecasting
n) the setup to that date is CHECKING ALL THE BOXES, just a couple more to go
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o) BECAREFUL DURING NFP tomorrow morning
p) the 2-way vol looks like 25-30 from 8:15 AM TO 9:15 AM, that's 15 min before and 45 min after
q) I am seeing spike up, HARD DOWN, ALL THE WAY BACK UP
r) in roughly 60-75 min
s) you've been warned
p) the 2-way vol looks like 25-30 from 8:15 AM TO 9:15 AM, that's 15 min before and 45 min after
q) I am seeing spike up, HARD DOWN, ALL THE WAY BACK UP
r) in roughly 60-75 min
s) you've been warned
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8:37 AM NFP reaction saw 2002.xx
1) should move to 2008 before moving down
2) that check down should be done by 9:00-9:15
1) should move to 2008 before moving down
2) that check down should be done by 9:00-9:15
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3) 8:44 BID ASK ON ICE TICKER HIT 2003.88 NO MORE VALUE
4) just wait for a reversal
4) just wait for a reversal
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5) unless you have 5 second bars or smaller, you cannot be long here
6) the cap has dropped to 2005.xx
6) the cap has dropped to 2005.xx
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7) the floor IS 1976 (2004-28)
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8) why? Didn't we already check down?
9) yeah to 1984.xx BEFORE MOVING UP..
10) said hours ago that 2-way vol was 25-30
9) yeah to 1984.xx BEFORE MOVING UP..
10) said hours ago that 2-way vol was 25-30
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11) 9:23 AM ET danger zone for check down still going until 10:30 at least
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12) 9:29 AM ET I saw 1986.xx just now
13) are we done? NO
13) are we done? NO
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14) we are we looking for 1976
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15) FRIDAY WRAP UP CAUSE I AM OUT OF TIME, 9:55 AM ET
a) so first some one asked, but I don't do " around the clock anymore bc it's so intensive
b) but I don't get anything back for it, the "increase in attention is slow and not worth it)
c) so here's the picture now:
a) so first some one asked, but I don't do " around the clock anymore bc it's so intensive
b) but I don't get anything back for it, the "increase in attention is slow and not worth it)
c) so here's the picture now:
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d) sorry something went wrong with my posts, for some reason, if you put something in brackets like without the spaces it disappears
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e) just did it again
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f) and again.. really annoying, any that's like four times already
g) ok so:
g) ok so:
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h) there's is a blue trend line going down to 1974 to the right
i) underneath it is the box of mean reversion for regressions being out of order
j) for this pattern the danger zone is to 11:000
l) we have to respect this part first
i) underneath it is the box of mean reversion for regressions being out of order
j) for this pattern the danger zone is to 11:000
l) we have to respect this part first
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m) again 7 minutes later:
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n) so many annoying things happening with my keyboard or something.. hold on...
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o) 10:15 AM ET, ok it deleted this:
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1) in chart above that's 1-min bar BTW
2) it's not over until the blue wave turns up (dotted line)
3) and price leads, so it's PRICE THAT MAKE IT TURN UP by moving first...
4) the blue wave is aiming for the BOTTOM OF it's bollinger, the blue bolllinger
5) and there's no sign it's quitting even at 1993.27 as I type
2) it's not over until the blue wave turns up (dotted line)
3) and price leads, so it's PRICE THAT MAKE IT TURN UP by moving first...
4) the blue wave is aiming for the BOTTOM OF it's bollinger, the blue bolllinger
5) and there's no sign it's quitting even at 1993.27 as I type
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6) it' also doing this AGAINST THE ODDS... but until it hits that box around 1976 or
7) go sideways to turn that wave up.. the danger of the "hard down" I spoke of at like 3 AM or something is not over
7) go sideways to turn that wave up.. the danger of the "hard down" I spoke of at like 3 AM or something is not over
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8 ) replay chart at top
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9) we are in 2nd blue box, it's bottom is 1982
10) but the 3rd orange box has its top at 1977
11) the blue hilight shows up from here BUT
12) the waves on 4-min bars and smaller are saying it needs to visit 1976 preferablly before 1:30 PM ET
13) IF IT DOESN'T DO THIS...
14) and move up now...
15) there will be ANOTHER check down come monday around this time to 1980-1982 ish
16) and that's NOT in the map at top
10) but the 3rd orange box has its top at 1977
11) the blue hilight shows up from here BUT
12) the waves on 4-min bars and smaller are saying it needs to visit 1976 preferablly before 1:30 PM ET
13) IF IT DOESN'T DO THIS...
14) and move up now...
15) there will be ANOTHER check down come monday around this time to 1980-1982 ish
16) and that's NOT in the map at top
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17) again this is 1-min bar:
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10:29 AM ET, I'm OUT OF HERE:
18) remember in last post #3-5 that orange was 7:3 OVERALL
19) but then I mapped quad top formation and said over the "X" blue is favorite (I didn't say for next 16 hours ONLY)
20) that doesn't change the fact that orange is still EVEN NOW, 6:4 overall
21) so in order to "make all this make sense" it should do exactly what it's saying it's doing right now
22) that's move to 2004 and 1976 AND THEN ...
23) ALL THE WAY BACK UP
24) so bulls don't become true favorites for next 4-5 days until the bounce from that rectangle
25) IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN, we probably need #3-6 by Sunday open
26) have a good one
27) I've said this before and I said it now again
28) if you want me to do "around the clock" support
29) TELL OTHER PEOPLE by word of mouth
30) I need to see a huge increase in folowers and attention to make it worth it
18) remember in last post #3-5 that orange was 7:3 OVERALL
19) but then I mapped quad top formation and said over the "X" blue is favorite (I didn't say for next 16 hours ONLY)
20) that doesn't change the fact that orange is still EVEN NOW, 6:4 overall
21) so in order to "make all this make sense" it should do exactly what it's saying it's doing right now
22) that's move to 2004 and 1976 AND THEN ...
23) ALL THE WAY BACK UP
24) so bulls don't become true favorites for next 4-5 days until the bounce from that rectangle
25) IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN, we probably need #3-6 by Sunday open
26) have a good one
27) I've said this before and I said it now again
28) if you want me to do "around the clock" support
29) TELL OTHER PEOPLE by word of mouth
30) I need to see a huge increase in folowers and attention to make it worth it
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IF THIS TURN UP HOLDS, THIS POST WOULD END AND I WOULD START ON #3-6:
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31) so in chart above, this is now 10 sec bars for the same wave
32) this bounce comes with a wave turn that's weird looking
33) so I'm not confident that 1976 is over until I have evidence this won't happen
34) if IT HOLDS 1993-1994 for 70 minutes (bc it's 10:50 while I type)
35) that should be all clear
36) but that also means MONDAY MORNING CHECK DOWN is coming
37) enjoy your weekend
32) this bounce comes with a wave turn that's weird looking
33) so I'm not confident that 1976 is over until I have evidence this won't happen
34) if IT HOLDS 1993-1994 for 70 minutes (bc it's 10:50 while I type)
35) that should be all clear
36) but that also means MONDAY MORNING CHECK DOWN is coming
37) enjoy your weekend
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38) here is 2-min bar through Monday morning
a) in chart above
b) if we skip this first one
c) then we should expect the second one
b) if we skip this first one
c) then we should expect the second one
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12:13 PM THERE IT IS:
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12:14 PM ET, IT'S 1989.XX as I type,
a) I would be ok w/ 1978-1981
b) doesn't have to be perfectly 1976.5
c) it just solves the worry for Monday and I don't have to make a new post
a) I would be ok w/ 1978-1981
b) doesn't have to be perfectly 1976.5
c) it just solves the worry for Monday and I don't have to make a new post
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d) if this breaks its over, 12:39 PM
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e) all over by 12:42
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f) it's 12:55 PM ET
g) if orange V happens for options expiration in 35 min...
h) that's RAW MANIPULATION
i) 2 weeks in a row
g) if orange V happens for options expiration in 35 min...
h) that's RAW MANIPULATION
i) 2 weeks in a row
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j) like this: you
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k) one more run to 2002 before closing
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l) dragging a bit slower
AND THIS POST HAS ENDED
1)#3-5C will be out before Monday AM
2) just use this one for reference until I detail the Monday smack down
AND THIS POST HAS ENDED
1)#3-5C will be out before Monday AM
2) just use this one for reference until I detail the Monday smack down
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3) not doing #3-6 bc quad top thesis still dominating
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3:12 PM ET 1994.5 NO MORE VALUE FOR LONGS
手動でトレードを終了しました:
11/04, 1:22 PM ET, KEEP UP WITH ME FOR 128 DAYS AND I PROMISE YOU
1) I can't make you rich, but I can help you make a significant amount of income
2) first replay this chart:
3) I've brought up this chart many times in the past, as it serves as OVERALL GUIDE for price action
4) but I also said to NOT USE IT BC the extrapolated regressions for its basis were wrong
5) what I failed to understand why it kept performing was that they SHOULD BE WRONG for price to act that way
6) halfway up this page I gave you this chart:
7) several days ago I gave you this chart:
8) the difference is this chart:
9) what I am saying is that it I THINK I JUST NAILED WHICH ROUTE IT WILL TAKE
10) stayed tuned
1) I can't make you rich, but I can help you make a significant amount of income
2) first replay this chart:
4) but I also said to NOT USE IT BC the extrapolated regressions for its basis were wrong
5) what I failed to understand why it kept performing was that they SHOULD BE WRONG for price to act that way
6) halfway up this page I gave you this chart:
10) stayed tuned
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11) and it WAS NOT EASY TO DO
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THIS POST IS DONE WITH, HERE IS NEXT ONE:
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