Good morning, traders. With the drop yesterday, it seems safe to say that most of retail is looking short and at first glance that's the logical thing to do. I've still got the same targets that I had yesterday. But I am remaining cautious on the short. Why? Because the volume on that drop came in for a total of 10 minutes. That's it. There has been no follow through since and volume has remained significantly less than that with supply continuing to drop off. Daily volume also continued the contraction it has been seeing the past two months. If the market does not participate in the selling, then the price cannot continue toward those low levels everyone says they're waiting for. So, what gives? Could it be that most of cryptotwitter isn't really in the market? Or could it be that their positions are so anemic that it has little effect on the market?
If we zoom out to the H4, price has done nothing other than drop below the local orange TR support. In doing so, it tapped the green daily demand and popped back out. At this time, price is finding resistance at the TR support, but if it continues through that support bears should really start paying attention. RSI dipped into oversold and is printing bullish divergence. However, there is a large RSI drop in the middle of that divergence so I don't give it as much significance as I normally would. Stoch RSI has bottomed out, curled back up, and is crossing bullishly. There is a good chance that we could see price bounce toward $10000-$10100. If RSI closes above that same descending resistance I've been talking about for more than a week now, we should be looking at a reversal rather than a bounce. Short TF Stoch RSI current suggests that we may see $9000/$9100 before any meaningful bounce, so we will have to continue monitoring price action.
Zooming out even further, to the daily, we can note that price is currently finding support on the pitchfork's median. Making the whole analysis even easier, when looking at the daily, if price closes above $9490 (on Kraken) today then it will print a bullish SFP (swing failure pattern) and traders should be looking to long a bounce at the very least. If this happens, we could see a descending triangle printing, as we would then have 3 alternating touches of support and resistance. I would expect price to initially target the pivot and potentially the descending resistance in the green daily supply zone.
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Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
If we zoom out to the H4, price has done nothing other than drop below the local orange TR support. In doing so, it tapped the green daily demand and popped back out. At this time, price is finding resistance at the TR support, but if it continues through that support bears should really start paying attention. RSI dipped into oversold and is printing bullish divergence. However, there is a large RSI drop in the middle of that divergence so I don't give it as much significance as I normally would. Stoch RSI has bottomed out, curled back up, and is crossing bullishly. There is a good chance that we could see price bounce toward $10000-$10100. If RSI closes above that same descending resistance I've been talking about for more than a week now, we should be looking at a reversal rather than a bounce. Short TF Stoch RSI current suggests that we may see $9000/$9100 before any meaningful bounce, so we will have to continue monitoring price action.
Zooming out even further, to the daily, we can note that price is currently finding support on the pitchfork's median. Making the whole analysis even easier, when looking at the daily, if price closes above $9490 (on Kraken) today then it will print a bullish SFP (swing failure pattern) and traders should be looking to long a bounce at the very least. If this happens, we could see a descending triangle printing, as we would then have 3 alternating touches of support and resistance. I would expect price to initially target the pivot and potentially the descending resistance in the green daily supply zone.
_____________________________________________________________
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
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