Why we don't trust this bounce on AUD/JPY

12月12日

My short AUD/JPY bias sprang into action quicker than I expected two weeks ago. While support has since been found, it looks like it wants to retrace against that initial drop. Yet I have my eyes on the bigger (and more bearish) prize, and when comparing this cross to other yen pairs, I suspect another leg lower could be due when the current bounce fizzles out as anticipated.

MS

12月12日

トレード稼働中

Another lackluster 'rally' on AUD/JPY despite broader yen weakness. I cannot say with confidence we have seen 'the' corrective high on Thursday, though the daily chart does have a bearish pipnbar. The the 4-hour chart does have the early hallmarks of a potential rising wedge. Which can have a habit of stopping bears out prematurely as prices grind higher.

But should momentum turn clearly lower - ideally coupled with a decent catalyst, I'd make the assumption the higher timeframe move has resumed.

MS