BITCOIN The pattern you don't see and how to spot the reversal.

This is a medium-term update on Bitcoin as I spotted some interesting occurrences.

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** The Lower High trend-line **
The price is currently testing the two Lower High trend-lines (since June 26, 2019 and August 06, 2019). This is almost a 1 year trend-line and technically as long as the price stays below it, then we will be under pressure. This is one reason why BTC turned sideways since April 30, 2020.


** The Ascending RSI & LMACD **
Even though the candles as on Lower Highs, the RSI and LMACD indicators are both ascending (Higher Highs). This indicates that this (almost) 1 year bearish (Lower High) price trend-line is getting weaker. However, it is no coincidence that the candle Lower Highs match the RSI/ LMACD Higher Highs, meaning that as long as the price is trading below, we may get a medium-term pull back regardless.

One way to get ready for this is to monitor the LMACD and see when it makes a bearish cross. This is not absolute though, but since it is near the trend-line, the probabilities are enhanced.


** The Rectangle = "The pattern you don't see" **
What is not visible on first sight is the 6500 - 10500 Rectangle. It is fair to say that if it wasn't for the March 12th melt-down on the stock-market, Bitcoin wouldn't have broken the 6500 Support. As seen on the chart, this Rectangle is dominating the price action since September 2019. Even now, it had a perfect touch as Support on April 16th, 2020, which may indicate that the price is again respecting this high-volatility pattern. Arguably the 10500 Resistance has been touched twice (October 26, 2019 and February 13, 2020) and makes a valid target if the Lower High trend-line breaks.

See also how the MA20/50/200 sequence since April 18, 2020 is identical to January 7, 2020 - February 2, 2020: first the MA20 crossing over the MA50, then the MA20 crossing over the MA200. At the moment the price is about to make the MA20/200 cross.


** Conclusion **
Keep an eye on the following parameters: the Lower High trend-line, the LMACD bearish cross and the MA20/200 cross. If the orange Triangle is repeated as seen on the chart, then expect a reversal towards the 6500 Support, which will make for an ideal spot to accumulate more BTC. Any break out above the 10500 Resistance constitutes a long-term Bullish break-out. No biases, no hopes, just pure technical analysis.


Do you agree with the possibilities explained above? Is this 6500 - 10500 Rectangle "The pattern we don't see"? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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P.S. If you are more into long term projections, have a look at my recent ideas below: