The overall corrective structure can be divided in three major legs, with the first being the start of the bearish impulse in December, which has been labeled as wave A with five subwaves.
The second leg, starting at February 2018 (wave B) has been a correction of previous wave A. After having reached the peak of subwave 4 of A, price has been rejected to the downside and the third leg began to unfold in an ABCDE structure.
I am expecting a break of the current 2018 low for price to enter the confluence area, starting at $5100ish-4900 (major support) as well as the fresh demand zone at $4500-4100.
Market participants have been surprised many times this year, as they stuck to a specific price level and thought any other scenario playing out would be utter nonsense. The market does what the market wants to do - and at the end it is all about probability and capital preservation. It's not about forecasting, being better or worse than someone else, but rather about staying objective in a market driven of fear and greed as well as being prepared for the "realistic" scenarios that might play out.
Having said this, I do not say that the area of $5100-4100 will be the last bastion, although subjectively I do think that chances are high that this area might be the bottom for BTC -0.88% - there is still a chance of seeing price plummeting to $3000.
Furthermore, keep in mind that after such large corrections, price never reverses with only one or two daily candles. It might take weeks / a couple of months, till the accumulation phase (range) will come to an end for the market to finally shift to upside once again.
Less is more - Safe trades!
Bud
The second leg, starting at February 2018 (wave B) has been a correction of previous wave A. After having reached the peak of subwave 4 of A, price has been rejected to the downside and the third leg began to unfold in an ABCDE structure.
I am expecting a break of the current 2018 low for price to enter the confluence area, starting at $5100ish-4900 (major support) as well as the fresh demand zone at $4500-4100.
Market participants have been surprised many times this year, as they stuck to a specific price level and thought any other scenario playing out would be utter nonsense. The market does what the market wants to do - and at the end it is all about probability and capital preservation. It's not about forecasting, being better or worse than someone else, but rather about staying objective in a market driven of fear and greed as well as being prepared for the "realistic" scenarios that might play out.
Having said this, I do not say that the area of $5100-4100 will be the last bastion, although subjectively I do think that chances are high that this area might be the bottom for BTC -0.88% - there is still a chance of seeing price plummeting to $3000.
Furthermore, keep in mind that after such large corrections, price never reverses with only one or two daily candles. It might take weeks / a couple of months, till the accumulation phase (range) will come to an end for the market to finally shift to upside once again.
Less is more - Safe trades!
Bud