A few words about the current market. Two weeks ago I wrote:
The whole macro picture is still so weak that I find it really hard to write down: we're in a reflation trade now. I don't know how long it will last, but my guess is: until we get a sense how the September FOMC meeting might play out.
Yes, we are still in that trade, everybody hates it (including me), because fundamentally we shouldn't be. But we see it everywhere:
The market is ignoring hawkish Fedspeak
It's ignoring hawkish data (NFP last week)
It's rallying on dovish data ( CPI this week)
Sector performance is reflationary, high-yield spreads are narrowing, breadth is strong, the Aussie is performing, Commodities are off lows and so on
I still don't believe it's going to last, but for now it is what it is. So, again I reiterate my main message from the last two weeks:
Strong opinions, weakly held. Being nimble. Trading the market, not expectations. That's going to be even more essential for the coming weeks.
The whole macro picture is still so weak that I find it really hard to write down: we're in a reflation trade now. I don't know how long it will last, but my guess is: until we get a sense how the September FOMC meeting might play out.
Yes, we are still in that trade, everybody hates it (including me), because fundamentally we shouldn't be. But we see it everywhere:
The market is ignoring hawkish Fedspeak
It's ignoring hawkish data (NFP last week)
It's rallying on dovish data ( CPI this week)
Sector performance is reflationary, high-yield spreads are narrowing, breadth is strong, the Aussie is performing, Commodities are off lows and so on
I still don't believe it's going to last, but for now it is what it is. So, again I reiterate my main message from the last two weeks:
Strong opinions, weakly held. Being nimble. Trading the market, not expectations. That's going to be even more essential for the coming weeks.