Hawkish Fed members have helped to push US yields and the dollar higher. We saw some volatility across yen pairs on Friday after the favoured candidate to success Kuroda (and a dove) pulled out of the nomination, and Japan’s PM backed a more hawk candidate. If a hawk takes the helm, the yen will likely strengthen on hopes that the BOJ will abandon YCC. But until that happens, the BOJ remain dovish – and USD/JPY continues to appear oversold to my eyes.
A bullish pinbar formed on Friday after a failed attempt to break below the 130.67 high, and we’re now looking for bullish momentum to return and taker the yen towards the 200-day EMA around 133.75.
A bullish pinbar formed on Friday after a failed attempt to break below the 130.67 high, and we’re now looking for bullish momentum to return and taker the yen towards the 200-day EMA around 133.75.
トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達:
As the original target around the 161.8% / 200-day EMA has been reached (and breached) we have created a new trade idea here:
Fed fund futures are now pricing in a ~53.1% chance of a third 25bp hike in June, which would take the terminal rate to 5.5%.
Onwards and upwards for USD/JPY?