AUD/USD Movement: Technical and Economic Perspectives

The AUD/USD exhibited sustained growth throughout the previous week, aligning with our earlier forecast. It reached the 0.6580 level, where we identified a convergence of technical, seasonal, and economic indicators. Technically, both the H4 and H8 timeframes show divergence on the stochastic indicator within the 78.6% to 61.8% Fibonacci range within a bearish channel. A probable reaction is anticipated at the FVG Area, potentially leading to a retracement towards the 200 Moving Average, around 0.65200, coinciding with the Point of Control (POC) Volume. Our analysis suggests a further downward movement, considering the historical bearish sentiment typically observed during this period for this currency pair.

Additionally, Warren Hogan, the chief economic adviser at Judo Bank, has speculated that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might implement three cash rate hikes throughout 2024, eventually reaching 5.1%, with the initial hike likely in August. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of March Retail Sales data scheduled for Tuesday, as it offers crucial insights into Australia's consumer spending behavior, which significantly influences inflation and GDP trajectories.

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